The debt wall is already in BDC marks. The break comes at 2031
June 30 BDC schedules show first-lien loans due by 2030 marked below 90 cents about nine times as often as loans due 2031 or later.
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In the June 30, 2026 schedules of a set of BDCs, 9.6% of the first-lien term loan par due by 2030 is marked below 90 cents. For par due 2031 or later it's 1.1%, so the earlier loans carry low marks about nine times as often.
The WSJ (opens in a new tab) put a size on the wall of risky loans that PE-backed companies have coming due, and a widely shared LinkedIn summary (opens in a new tab) split it by year. On r/private_equity (opens in a new tab), the first question was whether this hits PE broadly or only a few big sponsors. BDCs answer that in public. Each one files a schedule of every loan each quarter, with its maturity, principal and fair value on the same line.
Where the marks drop off, by year due
A mark here is fair value over principal, in cents on the dollar. Each bar is the share of that year's par marked below 90 cents. Watch the drop between 2030 and 2031.
The table adds the share below 80 cents and the par-weighted mark for each year.
| Due | Par below 90 cents | Par below 80 cents | Par-weighted mark |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 or earlier | 17.3% | 11.1% | 94.3 |
| 2028 | 9.5% | 6.7% | 95.1 |
| 2029 | 11.0% | 8.2% | 96.2 |
| 2030 | 6.2% | 1.2% | 97.9 |
| 2031 | 1.7% | 0.5% | 99.4 |
| 2032 or later | 0.5% | 0.0% | 100.0 |
The share falls in two steps: from 11.0% for 2029 to 6.2% for 2030, then to 1.7% for 2031.
The median loan tells the other half. In every year bucket, the median mark is between 98.5 and 99.2 cents. Most loans due in 2028 are marked near par. The stress sits in a minority of names, and the filings name them.
Why the drop comes at 2031
Our reading is about timing. A loan dated 2031 or later has years of runway left at June 2026. That group holds loans written recently and loans whose dates were pushed out, and a lender tends to mark a loan near par right after its terms are reset. So part of the low share past 2031 may come from that reset. This is an inference from the dates, and the next schedules will test it.
The same split inside each lender's book
Apollo Debt Solutions holds 46.2% of the par in this set. A split that big could come from one lender's marking, so we ran it book by book. Each cell is the share of that book's par marked below 90 cents.
| Lender | Due by 2030 | Due 2031 or later |
|---|---|---|
| Apollo Debt Solutions BDC | 11.2% | 1.3% |
| MidCap Financial Investment Corporation | 16.3% | 0.3% |
| Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund | 11.3% | 0.2% |
| North Haven Private Income Fund | 8.3% | 0.4% |
| MSD Investment Corp. | 8.1% | 4.8% |
| Stone Point Credit Corporation | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| Antares Strategic Credit Fund | 3.6% | 0.4% |
| Diameter Credit Company | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| All of the above without Apollo | 8.8% | 0.8% |
Every book shows a higher share for loans due by 2030. MSD's gap is the narrowest, at 8.1% against 4.8%. Without Apollo, the split is 8.8% against 0.8%.
PIK loans due soon carry the deepest marks
Some schedules show part of the coupon paid in kind, added to principal instead of paid in cash. We split the same set by whether the rate line says PIK.
| Due by 2030 | Due 2031 or later | |
|---|---|---|
| PIK: par-weighted mark | 85.2 | 98.6 |
| PIK: par below 90 cents | 48.7% | 0.0% |
| Cash pay: par-weighted mark | 97.2 | 99.9 |
| Cash pay: par below 90 cents | 6.4% | 1.1% |
Nearly half the par of PIK loans due by 2030 is marked below 90 cents. PIK loans due 2031 or later have none below 90.
The larger 2028 loans marked well below par
These are first-lien term loans due in 2028 and marked below 80 cents at June 30, 2026, where at least one lender in the set holds $10 million or more of principal. Where more than one fund holds a listed loan below 80 cents, each mark is shown.
| Borrower | Due in 2028 | Holder and mark (cents) |
|---|---|---|
| Medallia, Inc. | Oct 29 | Apollo Debt Solutions (opens in a new tab): 40.7 |
| US Infra Svcs Buyer, LLC | Jun 13 | Morgan Stanley Direct Lending (opens in a new tab): 42.0 |
| Continental Acquisition Holdings, Inc. | Jul 20 | North Haven (opens in a new tab): 46.9; Morgan Stanley Direct Lending (opens in a new tab): 46.9 |
| Finthrive Software Intermediate Holdings, Inc. | Dec 15 | Stone Point Credit (opens in a new tab): 51.0 |
| AMCP Pet Holdings, Inc. | Jan 4 | Morgan Stanley Direct Lending (opens in a new tab): 55.9 |
| Bird Rides / Blue Jay Transit Inc. | Mar 22 | MidCap Financial (opens in a new tab): 59.1 |
| Arrowhead Holdco Company | Aug 31 | Apollo Debt Solutions (opens in a new tab): 67.5 |
| Travelport Finance (Luxembourg) S.A.R.L | Sep 30 | MSD Investment Corp. (opens in a new tab): 73.9 |
| BP Purchaser, LLC | Dec 11 | North Haven (opens in a new tab): 74.3; Morgan Stanley Direct Lending (opens in a new tab): 74.3; Apollo Debt Solutions (opens in a new tab): 72.5 |
North Haven and Morgan Stanley Direct Lending both hold Continental and BP Purchaser, and their marks match to the tenth of a cent. Apollo's schedule lists the BP Purchaser line under BOX Partners.
How to check a borrower you care about
Take symplr's first-lien term loan as the worked case. It pays 8.26%, and it sits in the June 30, 2026 10-Qs of Ares, Golub and Sixth Street funds. None of these funds is in the set above. Each schedule gives the loan's fair value, cost and principal on one line.
| Holder | Fair value / principal | Fair value / cost |
|---|---|---|
| Ares Capital (10-Q (opens in a new tab)) | 65.4 | 66.3 |
| Ares Strategic Income Fund (10-Q (opens in a new tab)) | 65.4 | 71.5 |
| Golub Capital Private Credit Fund (10-Q (opens in a new tab)) | 65.9 | 70.1 |
| Sixth Street Lending Partners (10-Q (opens in a new tab)) | 65.4 | 72.8 |
| Sixth Street Specialty Lending (10-Q (opens in a new tab)) | 65.5 | 72.8 |
Over principal, the five marks sit within half a cent of each other. Over cost, they spread from 66.3 to 72.8, because each fund bought in at a different price. Principal is what the borrower owes, so that's the base to use.
- Find every holder. Search the borrower's legal name in EDGAR full-text search (opens in a new tab), limited to 10-Q filings. Each BDC that holds the loan lists it in its schedule of investments.
- Match the tranche. Line up the all-in rate and the maturity across holders. Spreads can be printed differently for the same loan: symplr shows 4.50% at Ares and Golub and 4.60% at Sixth Street, with the same 8.26% all-in rate in every fund above.
- Take fair value over principal. Leave cost out. Some funds give par inside the description, as Sixth Street does, so read the whole line.
- Note the year it comes due and whether the rate line says PIK. A low mark on a PIK loan due by 2030 sits in the cell with the deepest marks.
Third-quarter schedules land in November
The case to watch is symplr. Sixth Street's June 30 schedules show it due December 2027 at about 65 cents, at the front of the wall. If the third-quarter schedules show a new date, the loan moves to a later row of Fig. 01. The mark next to the new date shows whether the lenders priced the extension as a fix.
The schedules for the quarter ending in September are filed through November. When they land, re-check four things:
- symplr's maturity date and its mark at each holder.
- The 2028 share below 90 cents, now one quarter closer to the due date.
- PIK loans due by 2030, the cell with the deepest marks.
- The 2028 loans above, and whether any has a new maturity date.
Each lender's record in our database lists its loans and links every line to the 10-Q it came from. Start with Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund, which holds the AMCP Pet, Continental, US Infra and BP Purchaser loans above.